🏙️ Brickell Is Flooded With Condos—But What Does That Mean for Buyers?
With over 1,300 active condo listings, Brickell’s inventory is at its highest point since the pandemic began. At the same time, mortgage rates may drop in the coming year, leaving many buyers wondering:
Should I buy now—or wait until 2028 or 2029?
In this blog, I break down:
- Sales and pricing trends
- Inventory absorption
- Mortgage rate history
- Upcoming development pipeline
- Price forecast models
- And most importantly—when it might make sense to buy
📊 Sales & Pricing Snapshot: 2018–2025
Let’s start with price per square foot vs. sales volume in the first half of each year:
| Year | Sales | Price/Sq Ft |
| 2018 | 490 | $392 |
| 2019 | 524 | $406 |
| 2020 | 339 | $394 |
| 2021 | 1,237 | $449 |
| 2022 | 1,374 | $631 |
| 2023 | 689 | $678 |
| 2024 | 517 | $702 |
| 2025 | 405 | $705 |
📈 Prices have steadily increased, even as sales volume dropped 70% from the 2022 peak.
🧮 Inventory & Absorption
| Year | Active Listings | Absorption Rate | Months of Inventory |
| 2018 | 2,043 | ~82/month | 25 |
| 2019 | 2,013 | ~87/month | 23 |
| 2020 | 1,880 | ~56/month | 33 (early), ~24 (annual avg) |
| 2021 | 1,264 | ~206/month | 6 |
| 2022 | 814 | ~229/month | 3.6 |
| 2023 | 703 | ~115/month | 6 |
| 2024 | 993 | ~86/month | 11.5 |
| 2025 | 1,314 | ~67/month | 19.5 |
🔍 Current inventory levels (19.5 months) reflect a clear buyer’s market—offering choice and leverage.
Historical insight: In 2020, when inventory hit 33 months briefly due to COVID, it only took a year to snap back to 6 months—and prices jumped 14% in that transition. This proves how quickly market dynamics can shift when demand rebounds.
🏦 Mortgage Rate Trends
| Year | 30-Year Fixed Rate |
| 2018 | 4.70% |
| 2019 | 4.13% |
| 2020 | 3.38% |
| 2021 | 3.15% |
| 2022 | 5.53% |
| 2023 | 7.00% |
| 2024 | 6.90% |
| 2025 | 6.85% |
📉 Lower rates in 2020–2021 helped spark the price surge.
💸 Now, high rates + high supply = buyer hesitation.
🏗️ What’s Coming: New Inventory (2025–2029)
Between 2026 and 2029, Brickell will welcome over 2,600 new condo units:
| Project | Units | Delivery |
| Una Residences | 135 | 2025 |
| Visions | 111 | 2026 |
| Ora by Casa Tua | 540 | 2027 |
| 1428 Brickell | 189 | 2027 |
| Mercedes Benz Tower | 390 | 2028 |
| Cipriani | 405 | 2028 |
| Baccarat | 360 | 2028 |
| Dolce & Gabbana 888 | 259 | 2029 |
| Mandarin Residences | 228 | 2029 |
📦 20% of these units may enter resale, pushing inventory back toward 2019–2020 levels.
📉 Price Forecast: 2025–2029 Scenarios
Current Avg Price: $705/sq ft
Projected Ranges:
- Mild Correction (–2.5%): ~$687
- Sharper Decline (–8%): ~$648
- Most Likely: $650–$700/sq ft over the next 4 years
Why?
- Inventory up 33% YoY
- Sales down 70% from 2022
- Rent growth has plateaued
- Interest rate fluctuations remain a wild card
📈 Best-Case Scenario: Modest Price Bump in 2026
If rates drop 0.75% as forecasted by Goldman Sachs, affordability improves slightly, but:
- 12-month gain estimate: +2% to +4%
- New avg by mid-2026: ~$720–$735/sq ft
- Why modest? Higher baseline rates = lower sensitivity to cuts
In short, don’t expect a pandemic-style boom. The ceiling is lower in today’s macro environment.
⏳ Long-Term Strategy: Patience May Pay Off
| Timeline | Outlook |
| 2025–2026 | Mild gains as rates soften |
| 2027–2029 | Potential plateau or pullback as supply floods market |
🏁 Best windows to buy:
- Early 2026 for favorable rates + decent inventory
- Late 2028–2029 for possible price stabilization or discounts due to oversupply
✅ Final Thoughts
- 🏢 Inventory is surging and now favors buyers
- 📉 Sales are down, but prices haven’t corrected yet
- 📦 Over 2,600 units are coming by 2029
- 📊 Price growth will likely be modest through 2026
- 🕰️ 2028–2029 may present the best long-term entry point
Need help evaluating your next move in Brickell? I’d be happy to help you navigate based on your specific timeline and goals. Reach out anytime.