📍 As of June 30, 2025: Inventory Up 52% — And That’s Just the Start
One year ago, I predicted a modest 5% resale rate for Downtown Miami’s pre-construction condo units. But new data paints a much different picture.
As of June 30th, 2025, active condo listings in Downtown Miami are up 52% year-over-year, with 456 active listings in just a 0.4-mile radius—compared to 314 this time last year.
And that number doesn’t even include some of the city’s highest-profile towers, like the Aston Martin Residences.
Let’s unpack what this means—for buyers, sellers, and the entire Miami market.
📊 Inventory Explosion: Beyond Linear Growth
In just 12 months, Downtown Miami saw inventory surge from 314 to 456 active listings within a central 0.4-mile radius.
That’s a 45% jump in localized inventory—but when we account for nearby towers like Aston Martin, which now has 25% of its units listed for resale, the real picture becomes even more dramatic.
This isn’t a typical cycle—it’s a resale wave.
🏗️ Pre-Construction Resale Reality
Let’s zoom in on Natiivo Downtown, which includes:
- 412 condo units in Natiivo
- 140 condo-hotel units in Gale Miami (floors 1–23)
That’s 552 total units—and 93 of them are currently listed.
That means 17% of the building is for sale, just months after closings began. And several of these listings still appear to be developer inventory.
For comparison:
- Aston Martin reached 25% resale within one year
- Natiivo is at 17% within months
If that trajectory holds, the 3,000+ pre-construction units expected between 2026–2029 could bring 400–600 new resale listings to market.
That’s a potential game-changer in terms of future supply.
🔍 Sales Data & Market Conditions
Let’s anchor this with recent Downtown Miami performance:
Closed Sales (Jan–Jun):
- 2022: 527
- 2023: 265
- 2024: 216
- 2025: 190
That’s a 64% drop in sales volume from 2022 to 2025.
Price Trends:
- Avg. price per sqft in H1 2024: $649.77
- Avg. price per sqft in H1 2025: $679.62
➡️ A 4.6% increase
Inventory:
- ZIPs 33131, 33132, and 33130 now show ~20 months of inventory
- A healthy market has just 4–6 months
We’re in oversupply territory, with rising prices and shrinking buyer demand. That’s a fragile combination—especially with macroeconomic uncertainty (rates, global tensions, etc.).
⚠️ Why This Combo Matters
Four key dynamics are now at play:
- Supply Surge: Resale inventory from new buildings continues to grow.
- Demand Decline: Closed sales keep sliding, year after year.
- Macroeconomic Pressure: High rates, inflation, and global instability have created caution among buyers.
- Pricing Anchors: Sellers still listing based on 2022–2023 comps—out of sync with current demand.
This cocktail suggests leverage is shifting to buyers.
📉 Will Prices Drop? Forecasting What’s Ahead
A price correction feels inevitable, but the depth depends on four key variables:
- Absorption Rate: Can demand catch up to the new supply?
- Interest Rates & Inflation: Will they ease, restoring buying confidence?
- Seller Behavior: Will owners adjust prices, or hold onto inflated expectations?
- Inventory Duration: Staying above 18 months? That creates downward pressure.
📊 Visualizing the future:
- 5% dip: If rates improve and absorption stabilizes
- 10% correction: If sellers adjust gradually under pressure
- 20% drop: If absorption fails and sellers resist pricing reality
🧠 Strategic Guidance Based on the Data
For Buyers & Investors:
- Watch resale activity in towers just months post-closing
- Use $ per sqft, not list price, as your anchor
- Track months-of-inventory quarterly—it’s the leading indicator
For Sellers:
- Don’t rely on 2022 comps—buyers aren’t
- Be realistic and flexible—longer DOM is the new norm
- Consider pricing tactically: a 3% concession now may save you 3–6 months of carrying costs
For Agents:
- Master the data: It’s both your objection handler and conversion tool
- Use the oversupply narrative to position urgency or opportunity—depending on the client
✅ Final Takeaways
- 📈 Inventory is up 52% in Downtown Miami
- 🏢 Natiivo/Gale has 17% of units already listed
- 🔮 400–600 new resales expected over the next 3 years
- 📉 Sales volume down 64% from 2022
- 💵 $ per sqft slightly up—but against a saturated backdrop
The Miami market is evolving—and understanding these shifts gives you an edge.
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